Trey Lance’s path to the 49ers’ starting job isn’t clear, and it may be impossible for him to finish this offseason. The No. 3 overall pick finds himself in a unique position for a rookie quarterback drafted as high as he was. Generally the team picking third doesn’t have a quarterback capable of winning them games. The 49ers traded up to that spot and conceivably have a Super Bowl caliber roster even without Lance.
Whether a rookie quarterback should start right away is always a debate with a ton of layers and no easy, one-size-fits-all answer. For Lance, the 49ers have committed to the messaging that they’ll be easing the rookie into action.
In the universe where Lance does start, he’d be trying to do something no quarterback in history has ever done – win a Super Bowl.
That might be setting the bar too high though, so we took a look through all the rookie quarterback seasons in history to find the best ones and put a more realistic expectation on what a season of 10-plus Lance starts might look like for the 49ers.
98 rookie quarterbacks have started 10-plus games, and only 12 helped their team to the playoffs.
Here’s the list with a couple notable omissions due to double-digit limit. Lamar Jackson and Dan Marino both missed the cut because of the parameters. Jackson started the Ravens’ final seven games in 2018 and went 6-1 to help them reach the postseason. Marino started nine games and made the Pro Bowl in 1983 while guiding the Dolphins to the postseason.
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