The 49ers aren’t drafting Mississippi wide receiver and part-time Avenger DK Metcalf … probably.
The hulking 6-foot-3, 228-pounder with a reported inhuman 1.6 percent body fat set the combine on fire with a 4.33 in the 40-yard dash. His draft stock immediately shot up, and buzz among draft analysts grew that Metcalf could be the first receiver since Calvin Johnson in 2007 to go in the top three of the NFL draft.
San Francisco isn’t likely going to be the team to take him.
It goes without saying that Metcalf checks all the boxes to fill the 49ers’ need at wide receiver. He’s big, fast, physical and has tape to prove he can do more than just be bigger and faster than defensive backs. He is one of, if not the top, receivers in this year’s class. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s the first receiver taken.
It would be a surprise if the 49ers use the No. 2 overall pick on him, and there are myriad reasons why.
First, the 49ers need help in the pass rush. It is the weakest position on their roster, and arguably the second-most important position on a team after quarterback. Head coach Kyle Shanahan compared the impact of a game-wrecking pass rusher to the impact of a good quarterback. It’s simply not a position a team can be weak at and feasibly build a top-flight defense. There’s no coincidence that the 49ers set the dubious NFL record of fewest interceptions in a season the same year they had a mostly ineffective edge rush.
They have a chance to remedy that need with the second overall pick. At worst they’ll wind up with the No. 2 edge prospect. Rumors from the combine are opening the door wider on the 49ers’ chances at Nick Bosa, the top EDGE in this year’s draft. Skipping that opportunity in favor of a pass catcher could be devastating for a 49ers defense that badly needs help.
The importance of a top-end receiver in Shanahan’s offense is another thing to consider when projecting one to San Francisco with the second pick. Shanahan has a good track record of getting very good production out of relatively unknown receivers.
He once got 899 yards and eight touchdowns out of Kevin Walter. A rookie in Washington named Anthony Armstrong had 871 yards and four touchdowns under Shanahan. Armstrong was out of the league two years later. Jabar Gaffney broke 800 yards once in his first nine years in the NFL. He put up 947 yards and five touchdowns as a 31-year-old in Year 10 under Shanahan. Pierre Garçon’s lone 1,000-yard season came with his first full season in Shanahan’s offense. And Andrew Hawkins posted 824 in his only season with Shanahan. That wound up being his career-high by 291 yards.
Then there are players on the 49ers’ roster. Marquise Goodwin had 962 yards in his first season in Shanahan’s scheme. Prior to that he had 780 yards in 39 games. Rookie Dante Pettis thrived last season once he fully recovered from a knee injury and posted 467 yards on 27 catches with five touchdowns.
An elite, top-level wide receiver is a nice luxury to have. Andre Johnson had his best years in the Shanahan system. Julio Jones’ peak season was his first with Shanahan in Atlanta. They’re not necessary to the offense moving the ball though. A strong pass rush off the edge, on the other hand, is necessary for a defense.
Still, the 49ers’ need at receiver is unquestionable. Their depth is not good, and they still need a go-to playmaker on the perimeter, especially in the red zone.
The good news is this year’s draft class is ripe with receivers who check the boxes Shanahan wants, and can be picked later in the draft than the second overall pick. San Francisco met with Riley Ridley, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella and Deebo Samuel. All four of them fit what the 49ers’ head coach wants from a receiver, and all of them are projected to go late in the first round or on Day 2.
There’s a distinct possibility the 49ers use the No. 36 overall pick, or trade up from there into the back of the first round, to select a receiver. It would be the second consecutive year they’ve picked one early on Day 2. That’s a significant investment in the position without jumping the gun on one with the second pick.
Big, fast receivers are exciting. The prospect of a player with Metcalf’s measurables running around in the 49ers’ offense is enticing. However, San Francisco has more important needs to fill first.
They’ll select a receiver and do so early in the draft, but the team need and depth of this year’s class means they won’t do it as early as No. 2 regardless of the kind of combine Metcalf had.
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